This paper explores the link between welfare generosity, immigrant access to social welfare and migration. We investigate how the level of welfare generosity and, importantly, the effective access to social welfare at destination impacts migration flows. Using the updated Immigrant Exclusion from Social Programmes Index (IESPI) and a comprehensive database covering bilateral migration flows for advanced economies from 1990 to 2020, we find that access matters. Even when controlling for welfare generosity and other migration determinants, access to social welfare is associated with increased migration inflows. Interestingly, though, overall social expenditure is not associated with higher migrant inflows, but greater welfare generosity increases return migration from Western economies to Africa. This implies that welfare generosity empowers migrants to be more mobile, rather than locking them in at destinations (as welfare magnet hypothesis argues). The current paper sets a basis for further research regarding the role of specific social welfare policies and diverse geographical and policy settings in forming global migration journeys.
Check it out here: https://www.iss.nl/en/media/2025-03-pacesd53working-paper6-guzimytna-kurekova
This paper is an output of the PACES Project: Making Migration and Migration Policy Decisions amidst Societal Transformations financed by European Union as part of Horizon Europe framework. Learn more about this project here: https://lnkd.in/eXHWAJAH
